拉塞尔·肯尼迪(Russell Kennedy)寄给孙中山的报道草稿 (1912年2月5日)

(原文)

FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1912

TSUCHOWFU—(SATURDAY)The Revolutionary forces have taken Tsuchowfu, General Chang Hauin retired.Five hundred Imperialists joined the Revolutionaries.The Imperialists were routed but not seriously disorganized.The total casualties are reported to be about one hundred.

PEKING, Monday, 3 A.M.It is reported on the very best authority that Yuan Shih-kai received the abdication edict on Saturday.The Associated Press is informed that the edict will not be promulgated immediately.

NANKING, SUNDAY, 10 P.M.Simultaneously with the announcement that Yuan Shih-kai has received permission from the throne to organize a Republic—a roundabout way of abdicating, Tang Shao-yi and Wu Ting-fang the peace negotiators arrived at the Capital, in a special train.These facts together with the extension of the armistice for another week, the retreat of the Imperial forces and the triumphant advance of the Republicans indicate the closing of the present stage of indecision and possibly the commencement of a new era and a new regime in China.It is hoped that a national organization—temporary though it may be—will be the outcome of the negotiations this week and result from mutual concessions.

Several serious questions are involved in these final negotiations with Yuan.It is a mistake to speak of negotiations between the North and the South, for it is now quite evident that it is Peking and the Manchu against the rest of China.It is feared that the ambitions of Yuan fed by his admirers and certain interested friends may induce him to stand out for terms which the Republicans will decline to accept.The latter say they are in the best position and that the Manchu with the former government in Peking has forfeited all right to consideration except such consideration as is given for the purpose of removing an obstacle to the progress of China.Another cause for apprehension is the prejudice in favor of Yuan and against all else.This exists in Peking and elsewhere among those who have advocated a limited Monarchy.It is said to pervade the foreign legations in Peking and that Yuan Shi-kai has been persuaded into the belief that the Foreign Powers, especially Great Britain and America, will support him versus all others.A general underestimation of the spirit and the strength of the South coupled with these other considerations may lead to serious complications.

It is absolutely certain that if Yuan Shih-kai attempts to force himself together with Peking as the capital and a new cabinet and assembly upon the South even as a temporary stop-gap,—Nanking will flatly refuse to entertain the proposition.It is quite certain that Yuan must accept the present provisional government at Nanking, recognizing it as the government.He must take oath to support the Republic of China and to act as president under the conditions laid down by the present provisional assembly pending a permanent constitution under a permanent assembly.Under these conditions Yuan will be elected President, but the Provisional government as at present organized must continue though the cabinet will probably be reorganized and other temporary changes made.

It is feared that powerful influences are at work to induce Yuan to insist firmly on a dual government if he cannot get complete control.The dual government will not be accepted in Nanking of if it is the best judges of the situation are convinced it means the complete splitting up China, its dismemberment.But it is not believed for a moment that Nanking will consent and that if Yuan insists the advance on Peking will commence without a moment delay after the present armistice has expired.

Another question calculated to give some little trouble, because of the opposition of Peking is that of the future capital of China.In the present circumstances Peking is not even considered by the revolutionaries.Aside from the legations it is urged there is no reason why Peking should continue as the capital of China and even the legations will not object though their objection could not go very far to influence the decision.The revolutionary leaders assert that the capital inevitable is Nanking—That Peking is infected.

(译文)

来自美联社。

星期一, 1912年2月5日

滁州府(星期六)革命力量已经到达滁州府,张勋将军退休。500名帝国军人加入革命党,帝国军队被击溃,但无严重混乱。据报道,总伤亡人数约为100人。

北京,星期一,早上3点。据权威消息,上星期六袁世凯收到了退位诏书。美联社获悉,该法令将不会立即颁布。

南京,星期日,晚上10点。同时清廷宣布以放弃皇位为代价的方式,授权袁世凯组织一个共和国。唐绍仪和伍廷芳乘坐专列作为和谈代表抵达首都。这些事实连同停战协定延长一周,帝国军队的撤退和共和军队的胜利前进,表明现阶段双方拉据的状态将结束,以及可能是中国新时代和新政权的开始可能。人们希望,一个全国性的组织——尽管它可能是临时的——将是本周谈判的结果,也是相互让步的结果。

与袁世凯的最终谈判涉到几个严重的问题。说北方和南方之间的谈判是一种错误,因为现在很明显是北京和清王朝反对中国其他地区。恐怕由其崇拜者和某些利益相关的朋友鼓动起袁的野心,可能使他站出来提出共和党人将拒绝接受的条件。后者说他们处于最佳地位,北京的前清政府已经丧失仔细盘算的权力,除非这种盘算的目的是为了消除中国进步的障碍。令人担忧的另一个原因是支持袁而反对其他人的偏见。这存在于北京和其他主张君主立宪政体者当中,据说遍及在京外国公使馆。袁世凯一直被说服且相信,列强尤其是大不列颠和美国,将支持他而不是其他人。伴随着其他种种考虑,普遍低估了南方的精神和力量,可能会导致严重的难题。

绝对可以肯定的是,如果袁世凯试图建都北京,组建新内阁和新议会,并将此强加于南方,即使是暂时的权宜之计,南京也会断然拒绝考虑这种提议。相当肯定的是,袁必须接受目前的南京临时政府,承认它是一个政府。他必须宣誓支持中华民国,在目前南京临时参议院提出的条件下担任总统,直到正式国会制定出永久性宪法。在这些条件下,袁会当选总统。但目前组织的临时政府必须继续执政,尽管内阁可能会重组,以及会有其他临时变动。

人们担心,强大的影响正在发挥作用,如果袁世凯不能完全控制的话,可能导致北京与南京两个政府同时存在,这种局面南京是不会接受的,如果这是对目前现状的最佳判断,确信这意味着中国的完全分裂与肢解。但目前人们还不相信南京会同意。如果袁坚持的话,在目前的停战到期后将毫不迟疑地开始进军北京。

另一个故意给人一些小麻烦的问题是,反对北京作为中国未来的首都。在目前的情况下,革命党人甚至不考虑北京。除公使团外,人们极力主张北京没有理由继续作为中国的首都,甚至连公使团也不反对,尽管其反对也不会对决策产生多大影响。

革命领导人宣称,首都必然是南京,北京被污染了。