（原文）
RAILWAY SCHEMES.
The prominence into which the question of railway developments has been brought by Dr.Sun Yat Sen's addressess and today's Presidential Orders， suggests that the following opinions formed in twelve years travel and study of the routes proposed， may not be wanting in interest.
Dr.Sun Yat Sen with his customary common sense， has reserved his suggestions to the opening up of China's outlying districts， and has therefore some warranty for success.Some of the other proposals however， whilst showing greatness of conception， are unfortunately out of the realms of practicability.China to Constantinople is as noble a dream as the Cape to Cairo， but like the latter， will probably eventuate by the gradual linking up of local railways， rather than of set purpose.It is satisfying to dream largely， but it as well not to insist upon too great a prominence for the dream， if it is part of a scheme for which one needs the public's money for materialization.The Public with its fondness for catchwords， will jumble the whole scheme into a Canton to Constantinople one， and as the slightest investigation will show that that cannot possibly pay， will deduce therefrom that all the lines will fall， will tightly close the mouths of their money bags， and so condemn to failure all schemes whether practical and useful or not.
Generally the urgency of a railway may be judged by its political and commercial necessity.Whilst here and there a railway may be built from political motives， it must be borne in mind that the possibilities of successfully completing a scheme of any magnitude， will entirely depend upon its chances of profit.In all the schemes put forward three districts stand out as being in need of communications， namely Tibet， Yunnan & Mongolia.
Taking these one by one， it appears that a line to Tibet would only be justified on political grounds.It is not suggested that it will be a profitable line， and from what one knows of Tibet and its trade， it would probably be a heavy loser.Its sole raison d'etre would be to so strengthen China's hold on Tibet， as to keep it from falling into the hands of England.
Whilst it is somewhat difficult to guess at England's real intentions, it is not likely that she wants to annex the country.It is more probable that she wants to so adjust Chinese-Thibetan relations, that Thibet will be of a sufficiently independent status， as to give Russia no excuse for annexation， in the event of differences arising in the Mongolian settlement.
Under these conditions it may be possible for China to make such an agreement with England， that whilst reserving to herself a nominal suzerainty， would throw on England the onus of keeping Tibet free from any other nation.
At present Tibet is of little use to China， the country is poor， and the people dirty， lazy and incapable of any great development.In time no doubt it will， with the other waste spaces of the earth， have to do its share in supporting the overflow from the populous districts bordering it， and its future nationality will depend upon whether that overflow takes place from China or India.As there seems every reason to believe that the Chinese are very much better suited for its settlement than the people of India are， Tibet must therefore by natural law become Chinese.
China's present policy should be to make such an agreement with England as will retain her sovereignty over Tibet， develop her home provinces， and await the building of a railway until her people start colonizing it.China will be able to hold Tibet， or for the matter of that any of her outlying provinces， only so long as she is strong at home.When she is strong at home， she can follow her settlers and make her nominal claim， real.Till then， the money she proposes to spend on a Tibetan road would be much better spent in developing provinces nearer home.
Yunnan.A considerable proportion of the trade of this province now goes over the French railway into French territory.The business in done with French or Foreign houses located in French territory， and when the Yunnan merchant wants to consult his principals or his agents， he must go to towns and districts permeated with French sentiment.All Yunnan's ideas of progress come from French examples.This continual interchange of trade and thought， will in time direct Yunnanese ideals to France.In all human affairs the pocket is the great and often the final arbitrator， and no matter how patriotic they may be， self interest， although it may never make the people of Yunnan sever their connections with the home land themselves， may remove， or at least greatly weaken any objections they may have to annexation by France， the country on whom their profits depend.
It has been said that today is the day of conquest by railway.Fortunately the French do not appreciate the weapon in their hands， for by exorbitant freights， and somewhat high handed regulations， they have kept the railway from being the necessity it might have been.England in France's place would have so regulated charges and regulations as to make the railway Yunnan's backbone and center of life.
Sooner or later France will see the advisability of acting in the same way， but before that time China must have a railway of her own.Such a line say from Nanning on the West River to Yunnanfu could be built considerably cheaper than the French line， and could in consequence give cheaper rates， and so divert most of the trade from the French territory to Chinese ports， and keep Yunnan's thoughts and interests identified with those of China.
Mongolia.Of them all a railway through this district would be the most important.Mongolia differs from Tibet in that whilst the latter can never be colonized or developed by any other nation than China and China can therefore wait her own times， Mongolia can， and unless China takes heed will， be colonized and possessed by Russia.It differs from Yunnan in that Yunnan must always remain Chinese in population， and cannot become French unless of its peoples own will.Mongolia on the other hand is a vast country sparsely populated by nomadic races， which can neither use nor develop the country to its fullest extent， and must therefore give place to some other race which will.
Chinese settlers are finding their way into Mongolia in yearly increasing numbers.One who has travelled that way at intervals of a few years， can easily see the gradual encroachment of the green belt of Chinese cultivation and labour upon the Mongolian wastes and neglect.Mongolia seems to be the most suitable outlet for the Chinese race and here if anywhere a strong effort should be made by railways to attach it firmly to the homeland.
A start has already been made in the Kalgan railway and its Changsui extension， but unfortunately the late troubles have stopped work on the latter.Every effort should be made to recommence it， as this railway politically and commercially will be one of the most important in the whole country.
We hear that the Kalgan line can hardly get rolling stock quick enough now， that when it is completed to Ta Tung Fu and Sui Yuan it will have all it can do to look after the traffic， and that enormous profits may be expected.If these forecasts turn out correct it may not be impossible to carry out the further extensions throughout Mongolia on the profits of this first part， just as the Kalgan line was built from the profits of the Peking Mukden line.
The following list gives the most urgently needed railways in what is probably their order of urgency.
Kalgan—Sui Yuan—
Nanning—Yunnanfu—
Honanfu—Hsian—Lanchow—
Ichang—Szechuan
Whilst advocating large developments it should not be forgotten that any successful completion of them will depend upon hard cash， and therefore upon the faith of the world's money markets in them.No matter how rich China may be， or may become， the richest country in the world cannot spend money recklessly without suffering for it.No doubt the higher one aims the higher one will hit， but if one aims outside the realms of practicability one is apt to be taken for a visionary， and will have one's aims and schemes killed by a smile or a shrug.China wants necessities， not luxuries.In past days lines seem to have been built because some lender had the money， and some official needed it.Lines such as the Hu-Ning and the Chui-Kuang should never have been built.They serve no useful purpose as every point on them can be as easily reached by water.They are monuments to the venality of the old Ching regime.
The China year book gives the cost of these two lines as being about sixty million dollars.This money for all the good it is doing might just as well have been thrown into the sea， much better perhaps， for then China would only have to pay the interest， whilst now she has also to make good the losses.If the official who authorized those two lines， had been a thoughtful patriot instead of a corrupted self seeker， he would have diverted this money to the construction of lines such as the Yunnan or Szechuan ones， and would have gone a fair distance to the completion of Dr.Sun's scheme.
Another aspect of the situation which seems to be overlooked is the necessity of placing reasonable limitations upon the cost of future railways.It is of course very nice to have beautiful private cars， ornamental bridges， station buildings like temples， buffet and sleeping cars， but it is certain that they are not necessary for the opening up of new country.On old established roads which are making money， embellishments and improvements are justified， but on new lines the most urget necessity is to get there.
Unless the expenditure is carefully supervised， China may have to pay three times more for them than is necessary， as is instanced by the two railways “A” & “B” which both run over somewhat similar ground， and through the same provinces.
“A” was built by foreign capital， and by Foreign engineers， cost $1500,000 a mile， is generally accepted as being a show railway， and as generally， as being an unnecessary luxury.
“B” was built by Chinese engineers at $50， 000 a mile.It is obvious therefore that a good deal of money must have been spent on “A” other than was absolutely necessary.Foreign-engineers have condemned“B”lock stock and barrel， but that does not affect the argument.“B” bought all the material necessary for a satisfactory railway， where it failed was in putting it together.It may however be admitted that as long as all the material was there and laid down， it was just as cheap to put it together well as it was to put it together badly.We may therefore take it that provided the supervision and engineering had been satisfactory， railway “B” would have been all that was necessary， whereas railway “A” spent some $100,000 a mile more， and China must now pay $5,000 a mile or a total of $1,000,000 a year just for the privilege of having unnecessary luxuries.
With such examples before us some limitation must be placed upon future expenditure.Taking the two costs given， if railway construction is left as heretofore to the sweet wills of the lending syndicates， Dr.Sun Yat Sen's 200,000 lis will cost some ten and a half billion dollars， whereas if reasonable limitations are set and kept， the cost should be nearer one third.
China's railway policy should be that of James J.Hill， “Build as cheaply as possible as long as you get there， and improve out of profits.”
$30,000 private cars， elaborate buffets， fancy sleeping accommodation， express speeds， are unnecessary for the opening up of new country.All the profit comes from freight and third class passengers， neither of whom have been used to luxuries or high speeds.The cost of running trains， the cost of the track and its maintenance depends greatly upon the speeds to be run.At the start until there is sufficient traffic or profit to warrant the higher speeds， 10 miles an hour is sufficient in country where 30 miles a day is considered a good days travel.The principal end to be kept in view is the necessity of getting the railways built as soon as possible.Leave fancy embellishments until the traffic warrants them.
Before starting any extensive building operations， it is therefore imperative that limitations be set on the expenditure.Left to the tender mercies of the lending syndicates， it is likely that the health and well being of the 5% buying commission， will overshadow any interest they may feel in economical construction.
In conclusion we may say that first and foremost a reasonable scheme should be drawn up.That whilst enormous transcontinental lines may be thought of， they should not be brought too much to the fore， for fear of branding the whole scheme as visionary.When the lines most urgently needed are decided upon they should be hurried forward and built as cheaply as possible.The cheaper the mile， the more miles you can have， the more country you will open up， and the more people will be brought into touch with modern ways of thought and progress.
Whilst on the one hand， a carelessly thought out， expensively built and run system， will saddle China with enormous debts， by high freights will prevent her getting the full benefit of her sacrifices， and will in time when her people are taxed to pay for the losses on them， make them curse the very name of modern development and progress， on the other hand， a well through out system of communications， would act like veins along which like life giving blood， new knowledge and ideas would flow， and quicken the surrounding districts and populations to new life and prosperity， making them readier and more capable of taking their parts in the future of the Republic.
Fang Ko Pah
（译文）
铁路计划
铁路发展的重大问题已由孙逸仙博士的演说和今天总统令提出来，这表明以下形成于12年游历与研究的路线的主张，不可能不令人感兴趣。
孙逸仙博士按照他一贯的常识，保留了他对开放中国边远地区的建议，因此成功有一定的保证。但另一些建议，尽管展示了设想的伟大，可惜并不实用。中国到君士坦丁堡是一个遥远的梦想，如同好望角到开罗。但如同后者，可能会由地方铁路逐渐衔接起来，而非出自整套构思。梦想宏大令人满意，但也不必坚持太过庞大的梦想，假如它是一个需要公共资金来实现的计划的话。喜好流行语的公众，会将整体方案混杂成从广州到君士坦丁堡的一个方案。而最简明的调查表明，这是不可能支付得起的，由此便可推断，所有的铁路线将失败。公众将紧闭他们的钱袋子，因而谴责所有计划的失败，无论可行有用与否。
通常铁路的紧迫性可能是由其政治和商业的必要性来判断。尽管到处修建铁路可能是出于政治动机，但必须记住，成功完成任何规模方案的可能性，将完全取决于其盈利的模式。由于通讯上的需求，在所有方案中，西藏、云南和蒙古这三个地区最突出。
一个一个说。似乎通往西藏的路线只会有政治上的正当理由。这不意味着，这将是一条有利可图的路线。对了解西藏及其贸易的人而言，它可能是一个大输家。它存在的唯一理由是它加强中国对西藏的控制，以防止它落到英国的手中。
虽然猜测英国的真正意图有点困难，但她不太可能想吞并这个地区。更可能的是她想调整中国和西藏的关系，以使西藏拥有足够的独立地位，在蒙古协议有分歧时，不给俄罗斯吞并的借口。
在这些条件下，中国与英国可能达成出这样的协议，中国保留自己名义上的宗主权的同时，使英国承担保护西藏不受其他国家觊觎的责任。
目前，西藏对中国几乎没什么用处，此地贫穷，人民肮脏、懒惰，无能力推行任何伟大的发展。随着时间的推移，无疑它会与地球的其他未开垦的土地一样，承接周围人口稠密地区的溢出人口。其未来的区域属性将取决于溢出是来自中国还是印度。由于似乎有种种理由相信，中国人比印度人更合适移居西藏，因此西藏必须通过自然法成为中国的一部分。
中国目前的政策，应该与英国达成这样一个协议，保留自己对西藏的主权，发展她的内地省份，等待她的人民开始移民时再建造铁路。中国有能力统治西藏，或任何其他边远省份的事务，只要她在内地强大起来。当她在内地强大，她才可以跟着移民，将其名义上的权利实现。界时，她打算花在西藏铁路的钱，才会比花在离内地更近的省份好。
云南。本省相当大比例的贸易现在都通过法国铁路进入法属殖民地，同法国人或位于法属殖民地境内的房主做生意，云南商人想与其头领或其代理人讨价还价时，他必须去弥漫着法国情调的城镇和地区。云南所有进步的思想都来自法国。这种不断交换的贸易和思想，早晚会把云南人的理想直接通到法国。在所有人类事务中，资金是伟大的，往往是最终的裁决者。无论他们多么爱国，可能基于自我利益，虽然它不至于让云南人断绝自己跟国内的联系，但可能会消除，或至少大大削弱他们可能要被赖以获得利润的法国所吞并的反对意见。
有人说，今天是被铁路征服的日子。幸运的是，法国人不欣赏他们手中的武器，而是用要价过高的运费和一些霸道的规定，限制铁路本来该有的必需性。英国取代法国后，规范费用与规则，使铁路成为云南生活的核心和中心。
法国迟早会看到同样方式行事的明智性，但在此之前，中国必须有自己的铁路线。就是说从西江上的南宁到云南府的路线可以建造得比法国路线更便宜，结果是给的费率更低，所以能把大部分贸易从法属殖民地转向中国港口，使云南的思想和利益认同与中国联系在一起。
蒙古。其中一条经过这个地区的铁路将是最重要的。蒙古和西藏不同，后者不能被殖民或被任何其他不是中国的国家开发，中国因此可以等待她自己的时间。除非中国时刻警惕，否则蒙古可能被俄罗斯殖民化或占有。蒙古也不同于云南。云南人口能够始终保持是中国人，而不会成为法国人，除非云南人民自己愿意。反之，蒙古是一个地广人稀的游牧民族地区，不能得到最大限度的利用和发展，因此必须给其他民族让地方。
每年设法进入蒙古的中国移民数量越来越多。每隔几年就去一趟的旅人，都可很轻易地看到，中国人在蒙古人废弃和忽视的地方培养和开发出的绿色地带在逐渐扩张。如果在此通过艰苦的努力建设铁路牢固连接内地的话，蒙古似乎是中华民族最合适的出口。
已经在张家口铁路和张绥延伸线有了个开端。但不幸的是，近期的麻烦已经使对张绥延伸线的修建工作停止。应尽一切努力重新开始，因为这条铁路在政治和商业上都将是全国最重要的铁路之一。
我们听说张家口线很难得到足够快的车辆，现在，当它完成与大同府、绥远的通车，交通的好处将体现出来，巨大的利润可以预期。如果这些预测正确的话，也许用第一部分的利润进一步完成向蒙古的扩展就成为可能。正如张家口线是由北京到奉天一线的利润建设。
以下是最迫切需要的铁路清单，可能是以其紧迫性进行排序：
张家口—绥远
南宁—云南府
河南府—西安—兰州
宜昌—四川
倡导大规模发展的同时不应忘记，任何成功将取决于现金，因此取决于在世界各地金融市场的信用。无论中国可能会多么富裕，或可能成为世界上最富有的国家，也不可能不计代价花钱。毫无疑问，一个人追求的目标越高，会达到的高度就越高，但如果一个人的追求脱离现实，他可能容易被视为一个空想的人，他的目标和计划可能因一个微笑或耸肩就流产了。中国需要的是必需品，而不是奢侈品。在过去的日子里，铁路的兴建似乎因为有些债主有钱，或者是有些官员需要，如沪宁线和惠广线是完全不应该建成的。它们没有什么用处，线上的每一站都可以轻易地通过水路抵达。这是清王朝的腐败造成的。
中国年鉴给这两条铁路线估价的成本为6000千万美元。这些钱的好处就好像被扔进了海里，更好的可能是中国只是被迫支付利息，而现在她还得弥补损失。如果认可这两条线路的官方人士是一个有思想的爱国者而非一个腐败的利己者，他会把这钱转而投资给云南或四川的铁路，可望以同等距离完成孙博士的方案。
似乎被忽视的另一方面情况是，对未来的铁路开支作合理限制的必要性。拥有漂亮的私人包厢、精心装饰的桥梁、像寺庙的车站建筑、自助餐和卧铺固然很好，但它对一个新国家的开放不是必需的。我们建成的旧路线正在赚钱，装饰改进是合理的，但对新路线而言，最紧迫的需要是通车。
除非仔细监督支出，中国可能要掏比必要开支多三倍的钱。这里例举两条铁路“A”和“B”，都运行在相似的地面且穿过相同省份。
“A”由外资、外国工程师兴建，成本为每英里150万美元，通常被勘察是样板铁路，一般也被看成是不必要的奢侈品。
“B”由中国工程师建造，成本为每英里5万美元。显然，大量资金被不必要的耗费在“A”了。外国工程师一股脑儿地谴责“B”，但这不影响争议。“B”买了一条好铁路所需的所有材料，它失败在将它们组装在一起。不得不承认，只要所有的材料买回来了，将它组装得好或不好都很便宜。因此，我们可以认为，如果监督与工程都令人满意，鉴于铁路“A”每英里多花100万美元，铁路“B”将是必需的。而中国现在只为拥有不必要的奢侈品的特权，就必须支付5000美元一英里或者100万美元一年。
基于上述例子，我们必须就未来的支出设立一些限制。就这两种成本，如果铁路建设一如既往的依照贷款集团的甜美意愿，孙逸仙博士的20万里铁路计划将花费10.5亿美元。而如果设置并坚持适当的限制，成本应只需约三分之一。
中国的铁路政策应如詹姆斯·希尔所言，“尽可能便宜的建造，只要通车就好。通过利润来改进”。
3万美金的私人包厢，精致的自助餐，宜人的卧铺，直达快车，对于新国家的开放是不必要的。所有的利润来自货运和三等乘客，他们都不习惯奢侈品或高速度。列车运行成本、铁轨成本和维护的成本在很大程度上取决于运行速度。在开始阶段，直到有足够的利润来保证高速交通之前，每小时10英里的速度足够了。在这个国家，一天30英里被认为是一个好的日常旅行。要记住，主要目的是铁路必须早日建成。在交通能力能够支付之前，宜人装饰先搁置一边。
因此，在开展任何广泛的建造活动前，有必要设置支出限制。对贷款集团仰人鼻息，5%的购买佣金的福利，可能会使他们对经济建设的兴趣黯然失色。
总之，我们可以说，首要的是制定一个合理方案。可以考虑巨大的横贯大陆的铁路线，但不应该太多的涌现，以免整体方案成为远景。最迫切需要的路线，取决于它们能否尽可能便宜地快速建设。里程造价越便宜，你们可以有更多的里程，你们将开发更多的国土，让更多的人能够接触现代的思想与进步。
一方面，粗心的构思、昂贵的建造和运行系统，将使中国背负巨大债务，高运费会阻止中国得到其付出的全部收益，并将在其人民被迫征税来弥补损失时，他们会诅咒现代化的发展和名义上的进步。另一方面，一个深思熟虑的交通系统，会像动脉赋予生命血液，新知识和思想会流动，加快周边地区和人群走向新生活和繁荣，使他们更乐意、更有能力参与共和国的未来。
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